The Rational Investor… or Not?

This is the last post in a series of six blog entries focused on topics that might be of interest to the Millennial generation. If you would like to see our attempt at making these subject matters entertaining, visit our YouTube page to see a video version of this article.

 

So here’s the setup: you have two large pizzas. One is cut into four pieces, the other is cut into eight pieces. Would you rather have one piece from the former, or two pieces from the latter? If you asked a hungry four-year-old that question, he’d probably be totally confused because you used the words “former” and “latter.” But then he’d go for the 2 pieces because in his mind, two pieces are more than one. Of course, anyone with a basic knowledge of fractions knows this is a trick question, because it’s the same amount.

Let’s imagine now that the pizzas are companies, and the pieces are shares of stock in those companies. You have $1000 to invest. Company A’s stock price is $50, and company B’s stock price is $100. Assuming that there are no trading costs, you can purchase 20 shares of company A and 10 shares of company B. All else equal, which would you buy? Answer: it doesn’t matter – your investment in either company is the same. You’d be surprised at how many people would choose company A because you get “more” shares of stock or because they think the shares are a better “value” by virtue of having a lower price per share. The thing you have to realize is this – a company can issue any number of shares it wants to. If the price per share is $100 they can issue a 2-for-1 split, and now you’ll have 2 shares worth $50 each for every one you had before. Your total dollar investment in the company doesn’t change, though.

We all want to believe we are rational and that emotions are only something that affect other people, but it just isn’t true. We all have made mistakes like the investor in the example above and that’s why behavioral finance is one of the fastest-growing branches of psychology. This is just one example of common investor misconceptions but there are many more – click on the link above for a lighthearted look at a few that we see from time to time. Remember to always discuss your investment decisions with your advisor, so that he or she can lead you in the direction of the logical and unbiased choice.

Sarah DerGarabedian, CFA
Portfolio Manager

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Interest Rates and How They Impact You

This is the fifth post in a series of six blog entries focused on topics that might be of interest to the Millennial generation.

Today I’m going to touch on the exciting topic of interest rates. Okay, let’s be honest, most of us consider the subject boring and highly technical at best, and pure financial torture at worst. But hear me out. I’d like to explain why interest rates are in fact pretty fascinating, surprisingly straightforward, and worth learning about. The truth is that interest rates can have a massive impact on your current and future financial situation.

So what are interest rates? And how do they affect your financial well-being? If you think about it, everything in our modern society has a cost. You pay for a good meal at a nice restaurant, there’s a charge for staying at a hotel, and an education certainly isn’t free. The same holds true for money. It has a cost and that cost is interest rates. In order to get your hands on some money, say for a car loan, a mortgage, even groceries, you pay for that money in the form of an interest rate. When you have a good credit history, i.e. you consistently pay back other people’s money in a timely manner, you’re considered a good credit risk and it becomes cheaper for you to borrow money in the future. In other words, the interest rate you’ll get charged on loans will be lower than the average person. This is a good thing for your financial well-being. On the flip side, if you are even occasionally late on a credit card, car loan, or any other debt payment, you become a less desirable credit risk and the rate at which you’re charged to borrow money in the future goes up. In other words, the interest rate on the next loan you take out will be higher and you’ll pay out more money over the course of the loan, all else being equal.

You may have heard about the compounding power of interest and how it can help you significantly grow your wealth. This is a very true financial tenant when it comes to investing your money. However, this same principle also works against you when you step into the role of a borrower. As an example, consider that the median price of a home in 2013 was about $200,000. Now assume you take out a 30-year fixed mortgage to purchase a home. You’ve worked hard and have 10% in cash to put down. This leaves you with a $180,000 mortgage. Going interest rates for borrowers with good credit are around 4.25%. Even though these are still historically low rates, at 4.25% you can expect to pay approximately $138,960 in interest alone over the life of the loan! That’s in addition to the $200,000 cost of the house. Now let’s pretend that your credit is a little below average, making you a slightly higher-risk in the eyes of a bank. You’re still able to secure a loan, but the bank wants to charge you a 5.00% interest rate in order to compensate for the risk they take on by lending to you. At a 5.00% rate, you can expect to pay $167,760 in interest over the course of the loan, or almost $30,000 more than you would pay with a better credit score. That is some serious money.

On top of the impact interest rates have on our personal investments and debt payments they also affect our spending and saving behavior. Imagine that your bank was offering a savings account with a 10% interest rate. All else being equal, would you be more or less inclined to save? That’s right. Most people would choose to direct more of their personal income towards savings when interest rates are higher. If millions of people were forgoing spending in favor of savings, this would have a significant effect on the overall economy. Interest rates matter. What about high interest rates when you’re the borrower? As we saw above, even a small increase in an interest rate can lead to much larger debt payments. Generally speaking then, higher interest rates tend to depress credit growth and in the end can muddle economic activity as consumers take out fewer loans.

As you can see, interest rates can have a very direct and often significant effect on our personal financial situation, not to mention our saving and spending patterns, and the broader economy. Although we’ve only skimmed the surface, suffice it to say that interest rates are worth understanding, if for no other reason than to help you make smarter decisions with your money.

Carrie Tallman, CFA
Director of Research

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Renting vs. Buying

This is the fourth post in a series of six blog entries focused on topics that might be of interest to the Millennial generation.

In my experience, one of the largest financial decisions clients struggle with is the decision to rent or purchase their residence. There is not necessarily a right or wrong answer, and every individual’s situation is different. However, there are some scenarios that may help guide you in making the right choice.

Let’s start with buying. Here are five factors that may make it more beneficial to purchase:

  1. You like the idea of “forced savings” – as you pay your mortgage your balance owed is reduced. Building this equity in your home will create a form of savings for you. Since the value of the home is locked in, you can’t squander it away on dining out or shopping. You realize the savings once you decide to sell it.
  2. You think the tax incentives are attractive – when you file your taxes, you will be able to deduct mortgage interest. Property taxes will also add a nice deduction. If you do any energy-efficient improvements, you could be eligible to deduct those expenses. Another bonus is that depending on your situation, any capital gain from the future sale of your home is free from federal income tax.
  3. You want stable payments– typically your mortgage payment will never change, while rent is more susceptible to rise with inflation. Purchasing may be right for you if you are looking for a stable cost of living.
  4. You dislike the restraints placed by your landlord – often when renting you must get everything approved. If you want to paint, rip up the carpet and put down hardwoods, take out a wall or have a dog, then owning probably makes more sense. Home ownership allows you to customize a space and really have a place that you can call home.
  5. You value a second-income stream – by owning a home, there is potential to create additional income by renting part of it out. If you have an extra bedroom, finished basement, or a garage for storage, it’s possible to rent to friends, family or others to help cover your mortgage payment.
  6. Bonus – quite possibly the biggest bonus of all is you will be debt free in retirement with no mortgage payment. You will always have the expense of a rent payment if you continue renting.

But guess what… buying may not be right for everyone. It’s important to remember that there is more to owning a home than just a mortgage payment. Between maintenance, fees, and taxes, the costs can add up. And other factors may contribute to make it an unwise choice for some people to purchase. Here are five factors that may make it more beneficial to continue renting:

  1. You plan on moving – home ownership is not a short-term investment. If you think that you may be moving for any reason within the next 3-5 years, it’s wise to continue to rent. Once you are settled, revisit the topic!
  2. You don’t have good job stability – of course you can never be 100% certain if your job is stable, but the possibility of your income going down could greatly impact the type of home you can afford. If you expect to quit your job, or anticipate being let go, hold off on a home purchase until there is a bit more certainty about the future.
  3. You just aren’t that handy around the house – as a renter, you don’t have to worry about maintenance issues. If the pipes burst (something that the author can relate to), then the landlord is responsible for repairs. For a homeowner, it’s 100% on you. It’s up to the owner to paint, shovel the drive when it snows, and fix the garbage disposal when it’s broken. If you aren’t ready for the hassle or expense involved with being the fixer-upper, then perhaps home ownership just isn’t for you.
  4. You have a low credit score – having a solid credit score is vital in purchasing a home. While it may not prevent you from getting a mortgage, it could drastically affect the interest rate that you receive. If you have a score below 700 it would probably be best for you to rent while paying off debt and building up your credit.
  5. You don’t have money for a down payment – if you don’t have any cash squirreled away for a down payment, it may not be the time to purchase. If you don’t have a 20% down payment you will have to pay PMI (private mortgage insurance) which will increase cost of monthly payment. Use this time to save and budget before taking the plunge.

These are some of the basic pros and cons of renting vs. buying. Since every situation is different, it’s always best to speak with a financial advisor about the circumstances surrounding your own decision matrix.

With correct planning and consideration, we’re sure that you will come to the best decision for you!

Ashley Woodring, CFP® Financial Advisor

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Roth vs. Traditional IRA – Do You Know the Difference?

This is the third post in a series of six blog entries focused on topics that might be of interest to the Millennial generation. If you would like to see our attempt at making these subject matters entertaining, visit our YouTube page to see a video version of this article.

 

“Roth IRA” and “traditional IRA” – these are terms that are bandied about willy-nilly by financial advisors and others in the business. You’ve often wondered what the difference is but haven’t asked, because you feel like you should know already. You nod along, meaning to Google it when you get home but of course you forget as soon as you step through the door and directly into a pile of something your loving pet left for you to clean up. Allow me to help! With the IRA definitions, I mean – not the mess. That’s all you.

First, the similarities – both are types of retirement accounts that allow the investments within them to grow without requiring you to pay taxes on any realized gains. So if you buy a stock for $500 and sell it for $1000, you don’t have to pay capital gains taxes on the $500 you made. Awesome, right? Another bonus – you don’t have to pay taxes on any dividend or interest income that you earn within either type of IRA. In a regular brokerage account you would have to pay taxes on realized gains, dividends, and interest income, which would cut into your portfolio return.

So what are the differences? Both traditional and Roth IRAs feature tax advantages on either contributions or withdrawals, but not both. A traditional IRA allows you to make tax-deductible contributions (so the funds you put in there are not being taxed as income). However, when you withdraw the money after age 59 ½, it will be taxed as ordinary income at your marginal tax rate.

Conversely, contributions to a Roth IRA are not tax-deductible (so this is income that has already been taxed). But when you withdraw the money (assuming you’ve had the account for at least 5 years and are older than 59 ½) it’s all tax-free! That’s why traditional IRAs are called “tax-deferred” accounts and Roth IRAs are called “tax-exempt” accounts.

Now, as with anything the IRS gets its hands on, there are all kinds of rules, guidelines, exceptions and so forth when it comes to how much a person can contribute to either type of account, how much is tax-deductible, what types of early withdrawals are allowed without a penalty, etc. Rest assured that all of this information is available on the internet, so I will spare you the details. Better yet, call your financial advisor and ask him or her how the rules affect your unique situation. There are so many different scenarios that, if I were to attempt to address them all, it would completely defeat the purpose of this blog, which is to simply explain the main difference between a Roth and a traditional IRA.

Because your situation is unique, you should talk to your financial advisor about the different account types and which ones are best for you. But now, when you hear phrases like “tax-deferred” or “tax-exempt,” “Roth” and “traditional IRA,” you can nod along knowledgeably.

Sarah DerGarabedian, CFA Portfolio Manager

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Student Loans vs. Saving

This is the second post in a series of six blog entries focused on topics that might be of interest to the Millennial generation. If you would like to see our attempt at making these subject matters entertaining, visit our YouTube page to see a video version of this article.

 

You’ve recently graduated from college and you have a load of student debt. It can be overwhelming. You think it will take forever to pay it off. To make matters worse, you know you are supposed to be saving for retirement but you feel like you can’t because you need to pay off your student loans first.

To make the best financial decision it is important to remove the psychological barriers that often accompany the ‘saving versus paying down debt’ trade-off. The millennial generation is particularly opposed to debt – more so than older generations, so they tend to pay their student loans off before they start saving. Unfortunately, this could be the wrong choice.

The long run average of large company stocks is 11.3% (1950-2013). If your student loans are at an 8% interest rate, you would be better off investing money over and above your minimum loan payment if you have the risk tolerance for investing the money in equities.

Maybe an 11.3% return sounds unrealistic. It’s common for this historical return to seem disconnected from the present. A common psychological condition causes us to take recent past experiences and extrapolate them into the future, creating a false sense of predictive ability on what the future holds. If the good times are rolling, they will always roll. If we are in crisis, we will be in crisis for the foreseeable future. But the truth is that things change. Our economy is cyclical in nature and that’s why we use long-term historical observations to make long-term decisions.

Even with the worst recession since the Great Depression the average return of large company stocks in the 10-year period from 2004 -2013 was 7.4%. And while that’s not huge, you may be willing to take the chance that we won’t soon see a repeat of the worst stock market period in history. Those loans will get paid off eventually and you’ll have more money in retirement simply by saving more and saving earlier.

Don’t forget about your employer match on your 401k. If you have a 401k match, by all means take it! Even if your student loan interest rate is 12%, you’d be better off (after paying the minimum) putting enough money into your 401k to get the free money. That’s a 100% return, guaranteed.

Harli Palme, CFA, CFP®
Partner

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7 Reasons to Consider a Prenup

This is the first in a series of six blog entries focused on topics that might be of interest to the Millennial generation. If you would like to see our attempt at making these subject matters entertaining, visit our YouTube page to see a video version of this article.

I believe Kanye West said it best when he said, “We want prenup!”

There is nothing that can kill the romance of upcoming nuptials more quickly than your partner asking you to sign a prenuptial agreement (aka prenup). But do you know what can really kill the romance? Divorce! Perhaps you are thinking, “our relationship is going to last… we’d never get a divorce.” Well let’s face it, I don’t think anyone goes into a marriage thinking that in 5-10 years they are going to split. Other people may think that the agreement is only for the rich… this is actually a misconception. While it’s true, a prenuptial agreement may not be right for everyone, the following are a few scenarios in which it will make a lot of sense:

1: One partner earns the majority of the income. If you know going into a marriage that one person will be the primary “bread winner,” a prenup can be used to determine the amount of alimony that will need to be paid upon a divorce.

2. What about the partner that doesn’t make a lot of money? The prenup can also be used to make sure that the partner who is less financially set is protected in the event of a divorce.

3. For the spouse with substantial assets. If you own a home or other substantial assets prior to a marriage, you can use a prenup toestablish that those assets that came with you, will leave with you.

4. For the stay-at-home parent: This will obviously affect your income. If it is decided prior to marriage that one parent will stay at home with the children, a prenup can be used to make sure that each parent shares in the responsibility of taking care of the children financially.

5. One partner has a significant amount of debt. A prenup can establish who will be responsible for paying off debt in the event of a divorce. This can prevent you from getting straddled with debt that the other spouse created prior to marriage.

6. Children from a previous marriage. When entering into another marriage you need to make sure that you kids are protected from another divorce. This can ensure that in the event of your death/divorce that assets that should be going to your children won’t go to your disgruntled spouse.

7. You own a business. It is possible that in the event of a divorce your spouse will end up owning part of the business. Your partner will then go from being an unwanted spouse, to an unwanted business partner. Establishing that the business is off limits in a prenup can prevent this from happening.

It’s understandable that many couples don’t even want to entertain the idea of a prenuptial agreement. The important thing to remember is that this is a document used to protect all parties. Communicate openly and listen to the concerns of your partner. Even if you do live “happily ever after,” there will always be a peace of mind involved with foresight and deliberate planning.

Ashley Woodring, CFP®

Financial Advisor

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Financial Times Top 300

Parsec is excited to have been named one of the nation’s Top 300 Registered Investment Advisers by Financial Times Magazine.  The candidate pool started with more than 2,000 qualifying RIA firms.  This list was then narrowed down to the top 300 in the nation after a lengthy decision making-process. Each firm was required to fill out a survey where the FT scored RIAs based on 6 broad factors. These areas included adviser assets under management, asset growth, the firm’s years in existence, industry certifications of key employees at the firms, SEC compliance record and online accessibility.  We are excited to have been included in this inaugural list. Check out their site to read more about FTs Top 300! http://www.ft.com/intl/reports/registered-investment-advisers

 

Ashley Woodring, CFP®

Financial Advisor

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Market Update Through 6/30/2014

as of June 30, 2014
Total Return
Index 12 months YTD QTD June
Stocks
Russell 3000 25.22% 6.94% 4.87% 2.51%
S&P 500 24.61% 7.14% 5.23% 2.07%
DJ Industrial Average 15.56% 2.68% 2.83% 0.75%
Nasdaq Composite 31.17% 6.18% 5.31% 3.99%
Russell 2000 23.64% 3.19% 2.00% 5.32%
MSCI EAFE Index 23.57% 4.78% 4.09% 0.96%
MSCI Emerging Markets 14.31% 6.14% 6.60% 2.66%
Bonds
Barclays US Aggregate 4.37% 3.93% 2.04% 0.05%
Barclays Intermediate US Gov/Credit 2.86% 2.25% 1.23% -0.07%
Barclays Municipal 6.14% 6.00% 2.59% 0.09%
Current Prior
Commodity/Currency Level Level
Crude Oil  $105.37  $102.71
Natural Gas  $4.46  $4.54
Gold  $1,322.00  $1,246.00
Euro  $1.36  $1.36

Mark A. Lewis

Director of Operations

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One Down, One to Go

There was much rejoicing among analysts, economic forecasters and financial market participants on June 6 when the BLS told us that total nonfarm payroll employment on a seasonally adjusted basis set a new record in May 2014 with 138,463,000 such jobs then. The old record of 138,350,000 such jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis was set in January 2008, which was the first full month of the 18-month long recession that began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009.

The chart shows the pattern of this widely followed economic series since January 1978. It is quite obvious that instead of the fairly quick recovery in such jobs that followed every recession from 1945 to the 1981-1982 one, the length of time to return to previous levels has gotten longer and longer with every recession beginning with the 1990-1991 event.

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While many reports on this new record contained statements claiming that all the jobs lost in the recession had been made up, that is not technically true. What IS true is that the total number of jobs has now been matched. But tens of millions of actual jobs that disappeared in 2008-2010 will never come back. They have just been replaced by other jobs.

In addition to that, the total population and the labor force have grown a lot over this time frame. Some estimates are that we might need as many as five million more jobs today just to be even with how well off we were in January 2008 in terms of payroll employment.

It turns out that the pattern of nonfarm payroll jobs today is vastly different from what it was back in January 2008. Here are some of the comparisons.

By far the largest number of net new nonfarm payroll jobs over that period is found in the “health care and social assistance” category, which has risen by 2,150,000 such jobs. Next is “Accommodations and food services” with an increase of 941,000. “Professional and technical services” jobs have grown by 512,000. “Education services “has gained 425,000 jobs and “Temporary help services” has added 307,000 jobs since January 2008.

Not very surprisingly, the biggest loser is jobs in manufacturing. There were 1,650,000 fewer of those in May 2014 than in January 2008. This is hardly a new story. The peak was 19,553,000 jobs back in June 1979. The recent trough counted 11,453,000 such jobs, which was the lowest number since March 1941, well before the US became involved in World War II. The May 2014 level of 12,099,000 is still lower than in June 1941, both on a seasonally adjusted basis. No one expects to see a new record here for many years, if ever. It is a fact that total manufacturing output has soared since then. The Industrial Production manufacturing index was 10.5 (2007=100) then and 99.5 in May 2014. That shows how huge the labor productivity increases have been in manufacturing. The US has the highest levels of labor productivity in manufacturing in the world and also the highest average annual rate of increase in this critically important measure over the past 70 years.

The construction sector was still down 1,496,000 jobs in May 2014 from January 2008. The government sector lost 507,000 jobs over that period, but almost all of these were at the state and local level.

Consistent with this shift in the type of nonfarm payroll jobs over the past 6-1/2 years, it should not surprise you to learn that the number of nonfarm payroll jobs held by women has been above the old peak set in February 2008 every month since September 2013. There were 68,393,000 nonfarm payroll jobs held by women in May 2014 or 49.4 percent of all such jobs.

As a corollary to the still-missing millions of construction and manufacturing jobs, the total number of nonfarm payroll jobs held by men is still below the old peak. It will take several more months to see a new record for men holding nonfarm payroll jobs.

Of course, there are two different measures of employment. In addition to nonfarm payroll employment, we have total civilian employment, which includes the self-employed and agricultural workers. This measure counts each person only once, whereas the payroll survey does not adjust for people who have more than one payroll job.

Total civilian employment peaked in November 2007 with 146,595,000 people employed on a seasonally adjusted basis. In May 2014 there were 145,814,000 people employed, so there are still 781,000 fewer people employed than at the peak. There were 9,799,000 people who were unemployed and looking for work in May for an unemployment rate of 6.3 percent. We should see a new record in the next two or three months. Then we can celebrate the fact that we are in uncharted territory by both measures.

The June 10, BLS report on “Job Openings and Labor Turnover” (the JOLTS report) told us that on April 30 on a seasonally adjusted basis there were 4,455,000 unfilled job openings in the US. That was the highest since September 2007, before the recession began.

The report also said that there were 55.1 million hires in the twelve months ending in April 2014. There were 52.8 million job separations in the same period.

Thus, we had 107.9 million people changing jobs over 12 months in order to get a net employment gain of 2.2 million people. The US economy remains the most incredible “jobs machine” every seen.

 

Dr. James F. Smith

Chief Economist

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College Savings for the Kids, or Retirement?

Many a financial advisor has been asked how to balance saving for retirement while also funding a child’s college education. Which brings up the question: Is it a parent’s responsibility to pay for their child’s education? And is it possible to do both? As with most difficult questions, there are no black and white answers.

While I’m not a parent myself, I’ve heard passionate positions on both sides of the argument. Some parents didn’t receive any college financial support and feel pride in having paid their own way, working and going to school part time in order to earn their four-year degree. Others, myself included, felt fortunate enough to receive monetary support from their parents, and the gift of graduating with a four-year degree debt-free. In a perfect world, most parents would choose to provide for their children’s education but unfortunately not everyone has the income to do it. In that case, what is the best course of action?

Before tackling that question, there is some good news. A recent Gallup Poll shows that expensive, prestigious colleges don’t necessarily produce happier people who lead more fulfilling lives. Specifically, graduates of colleges in the bottom-ranked U.S. News & World Report schools faired just as well as graduates from top-ranked colleges in terms of overall well being. The poll looked at several quality of life factors, including income level and “engagement” in graduates’ careers. See the article here. Of particular note, high college debt loads had a meaningfully negative impact on graduates. Sadly, 70% of students who borrow have a national average debt balance of $29,400.

I would tend to agree with these findings. As a state university graduate (go Gators!) I received a great education, learned and worked with some world-renowned scholars, and feel pretty darn satisfied in my life and career today. All-in, college cost my parents about $12,000 a year. Granted, that was seventeen years ago. Today, attending the University of Florida costs about $21,000 a year, including room and board; still a pretty attractive price tag considering sky-high tuitions at some of the top private colleges and universities. Don’t get me wrong, if money had been no option and my grades were a little better back in high school, I would have jumped at the chance to attend an Ivy League school. Such were not my cards. The point, however, is that state schools often offer a phenomenal education at a fraction of the cost of many private schools which can make the dilemma of whether to save for your retirement or your child’s secondary education a little less challenging.

However, different students have different needs and may be searching for what those more expensive colleges offer – whether that’s a smaller setting, specific academic programs or special facilities. So if your child is interested in what the pricier schools have to offer, consider applying even if you don’t have all the funds available to pay. Some of the most expensive schools have a tremendous amount of scholarship money available for qualified students in need. It’s a great reason for your child to stay motivated with grades and extracurricular activities throughout high school.

But back to our main question: should you save for your retirement or your child’s college education? Ideally, everyone would do both, but given a median US income of about $51,000, this isn’t always possible. Taking an economic perspective, the classic airplane analogy comes to mind: when the oxygen masks come down due to a drop in air pressure, air regulations require parents to first secure their own oxygen mask before helping their child. Why? Because we can’t take care of someone else, children included, until we’ve first tended to our own needs. I believe the same holds true regarding retirement savings and a child’s college education. Funding your child’s college education at the expense of your retirement savings plan implicitly shifts the financial burden of retirement from parent to child. Essentially, parents who first try to support their child at the expense of their own retirement are making the bet that their child will earn more than them, or at least enough to provide for them in their twilight years. While parents may have good intentions, this dynamic can ultimately prove unhealthy for all parties involved. As with the oxygen mask analogy, a sound strategy would suggest first meeting your own retirement savings needs and then, as you’re able, contributing to a child’s college fund. In the end, you’ll have peace of mind regarding your own financial security and likely be in a better position to further support your child – who may just be thriving on her own.

Carrie A. Tallman, CFA
Director of Research

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