Gen Y, Say Yes to Stocks!

It started with anecdotal evidence: a conversation with a co-worker about a group of professionals he spoke to about their 401k. The wiser (by which I mean older) folks were asking about the outlook for the economy and how they could maximize their 401k contributions. But the young man in the group, who was in his early 30s, expressed complete contempt for the stock market.  All of his money, he said, was in cash. Then a client of mine who is nearing retirement called me just to tell me about a dinner he went to where the topic of investing came up.  He was shocked at how vehement the young people at the table were about not investing in stocks due to their risk.

Since then I’ve read about a growing body of evidence coming from surveys and other research that suggests that the younger generations are too conservative in their investments. Gen Y is saving but not investing aggressively enough. The problem is that they distrust financial institutions (we don’t count) and believe another financial meltdown is all but imminent.

Gen Y, we don’t blame you. You were in your teens on Sept. 11, 2001, which had to have rocked whatever concept of stability you had. By the time you were old enough to know what the stock market was, the technology-driven crash of 2001-2002 was causing strife in budding 401k plans. And just when you were starting to dream about home ownership the housing market was spiraling out of control in 2008-2010. Many of you watched your parents go through extreme financial duress during this time period, something you were well old enough to understand.

It’s no wonder that Generation Y is too conservative. Your generation doesn’t have the benefit of personally experiencing the roaring 80s and 90s to boost your confidence about the markets. You don’t know who Crockett and Tubbs are. Looking at historical stock returns on paper just isn’t the same as living through it. And it’s hard to understand why men ever wore over-sized shoulder pads, but they did. Even the last five (amazing) years of positive stock markets seems like mere payback for the horror of 2008-2009. Despite this, we have to remember that stocks have historically provided the highest long-term return. No matter what your steadfast beliefs are about the future of the economy, it probably carries no more predictive capacity than the next differing opinion. That’s why we look to history as a guide, rather than trying to guess the future.

When you look at stock volatility over long time frames, it isn’t nearly as risky as the day-to-day movement would have you believe. In the last 87 years large company stocks’ annual returns ranged from -43% in the worst year to +54% in the best. That’s quite a spread! But those same stocks in any given 20 year period (starting on any given day in any year) averaged returns in a range of +3% in the worst 20-year period to nearly +18% in the best 20-year period. That includes the Great Depression and the market crashes of this century. That’s a lot easier to swallow. You have a long time before liquidating your accounts for retirement – probably more than 30 years, so you should be taking a longer term view.

And let’s not forget about inflation. That cash that’s in your 401k is doing less than nothing for you. Long run inflation is around 3%. If you are getting a 0% return on your cash, that is actually -3% in real dollars, guaranteed.

Saving money isn’t good enough. Millennials need to invest with a little more oomph. Yes, diligently putting away $500 a month for 30 years is hard work and no one wants to see their money shrink. But consider this: if you get a modest 4% average return on those savings, you will have $347,000 in retirement; if you double that return to 8% an amazing thing happens: $745,000. Taking risk means a lot of ups and downs along the way, but potentially twice the money in the end. If you can go cliff-jumping with your friends, you can buy stocks, right? (No? Was that just my friends?)

There is no reward without risk, to be sure. Any investment plan should be done with the full comprehension of the volatility, range of outcomes and potential for return. There certainly is risk in losing money in the stock market over short and intermediate time periods. However, those losses only become permanent if you sell out during periods of decline. It seems all but certain that an all-cash/fixed income portfolio is doomed to growth too slow to possibly reach any long-term financial goals.

 

Harli L. Palme, CFA, CFP®

A Gen-exer who believes all of the above applies to her generation too, except the part about over-sized shoulder pads.

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The Challenges of Initial Public Offerings

This is a blog post of ours from 2012 that we thought was worth re-posting.

 

There have been many headlines recently regarding initial public offerings (IPOs) of technology companies.  These headlines tend to generate media buzz and excitement from investors eager to make a quick profit or get in on the next big thing.

The first issue investors face is access to IPOs. In an IPO, the company sells shares to one or more investment banks.  These firms then market the shares to their clients at a slightly higher price known as the Public Offering Price or “POP.”  These clients are typically large institutions rather than retail investors looking to buy relatively small amounts.

You can look up the prospectus, or S-1 registration statement, for any IPO at www.sec.gov.  If you do this, you will notice that the price and number of shares are blank until the last minute. These are filled in right before the registration statement is declared effective by the SEC and the shares start trading.  You do not know the price while you are reviewing the information to make an investment decision.

When trading opens, the shares may sell for above or below the POP.  It all depends on the supply and demand for shares.  Recent technology IPOs have tended to significantly underperform the overall market.

Some recent companies have come public at valuations of over 100 times trailing earnings, while the market as a whole currently trades at about 17 times trailing earnings.  What does this mean from an investment standpoint?  Mathematically, these new companies must continue to grow at a much faster rate than the overall market for a long time in order to justify their current stock prices.  If there is an earnings disappointment, these high-projected growth companies will tend to fall in price more than a company trading at a more reasonable valuation.

You may love the product, but that may not make for a good investment.  Let’s take the airline industry as an example.  I love the idea that you can get on a plane and go almost anywhere in the world.  But the industry has been plagued with bankruptcies, with many examples of common stockholders being completely wiped out and losing their entire investment.

How about the auto industry?  I love the product, and everyone has one.  In the early 1900’s in the US, there were thousands of auto manufacturers.  Now there are three.  What are the chances that you as an investor would have picked one of those three?  And two of them went through bankruptcy in the past three years.

In addition, there are many quality companies currently trading at valuations below that of the overall market that have increased their dividends each year for 25, 35 or over 55 years.  While we invest in technology companies, we prefer to focus on established companies with solid balance sheets that have the potential for long-term growth of earnings, dividends or both.

 

Bill Hansen, CFA

Managing Partner

February 12, 2012

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How Do You Choose a Financial Advisor?

Clients of Parsec have already gone through the process of interviewing and hiring a financial advisor. Other readers of this blog may not have done that, but may be thinking about it. How do you go about finding the right advisor?

 

You may choose to use a list of prepared questions to thoroughly understand the scope of the engagement and the advisor’s qualifications. Or you may just want to sit down and talk with the advisor to get a gut feeling about whether the two of you would see eye-to-eye.  Many people receive a recommendation from a trusted family member or friend and that helps make the decision.  When you hire a financial advisor it’s important to find the right fit for you, and to hire someone who is competent and trustworthy.  Ultimately it’s up to you to make this determination.

 

At Parsec we believe that credentials are one important way that you can determine if an advisor is competent.  Experience is important too, which is why we have our newer advisors working in a team structure, led by some of the most experienced and successful advisors in the firm. Philosophy and discipline is also something that we highly value, as that ends up being the driver to the advice that a client receives.

 

All of the factors will play a part in your decision-making process. The Certified Financial Board of Standards has a wealth of information regarding how to find a financial advisor. One helpful article on the subject can be found here:  http://letsmakeaplan.org/working-with-a-financial-planner/what-to-ask. This provides some very important questions that you should be asking when interviewing advisors.

 

Parsec welcomes the opportunity to talk to you or any of our client’s family members and friends to answer questions about choosing the right financial advisor.

 

Harli L. Palme, CFA, CFP(R)

Partner

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