32nd Annual Economic Crystal Ball Seminar

Each year we co-sponsor the Annual Economic Crystal Ball with UNC Asheville.  This is a great opportunity to hear Parsec’s Chief Economist, Dr. James F. Smith, and Nationwide’s VP and Chief Economist, Dr. David W. Berson, discuss the economic and financial outlook through 2017.  To register please email Kimberly Moore at kmoore@unca.edu or call at 828-251-6550.   A copy of the brochure can be found here.

  • Location: Lipinsky Hall Auditorium (Next to Ramsey Library)                                               UNC Asheville Campus
  • Date: Thursday, April 28, 2016
  • Reception: 6:15 p.m.
  • Economic Outlook:  7:00 p.m.
  • Financial Outlook: 7:30 p.m.
  • Q & A: 8:00 p.m.

The Economic Outlook will focus on inflation, employment, interest rates, the strength of the dollar and the housing market. The Financial Outlook will explore the implications of Federal Reserve policy for the financial markets. Various investments will be addressed, with an emphasis on interest rates and the bond market.

About our Speakers

David W. Berson, Ph.D                                                                                                              Dr. Berson is Senior Vice President and Chief Economist at Nationwide Insurance, where his responsibilities involve leading a team of economist that act as internal consultants to the company’s business units.  His numerous professional experiences include Vice President and Chief Economist at Fannie Mae from 1989-2007, past president of the National Association of Business Economists, and senior management position with Wharton Econometrics Forecasting.

James F. Smith, Ph.D.                                                                                                              Dr. Smith is the chief economist at Parsec Financial.  He has more than 30 years of experience as an economic forecaster. Dr. Smith’s career spans private industry, government and academic institutions, and includes tenures with Wharton Econometrics, Union Carbide, the Federal Reserve and the President’s Council of Economic Advisers.

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Ways to Cut Wedding Costs

I’m getting married this year, and I couldn’t be more excited . . . about getting married, not necessarily about planning the wedding. The process can be stressful and overwhelming – the organization, details, responsibility, and not least of all, cost.

As a financial planner I’ve thought a lot about the cost of this important day. A quick Google search reveals that the average amount of money spent on a wedding in the United States is over $30,000. It’s not like the old days where fathers paid men a dowry to marry their daughters (thankfully). While both of our families are helping us on wedding cost, we still need to pony up quite a bit of cash on our own. I did not want to start off this next phase of my life in debt.

Through my planning I’ve come across a number of ways that people have saved money on their wedding. While I didn’t choose all of these options, I think they’re all worth considering.  If you know someone who’s planning on tying the knot soon, you may want to share these ideas with them: 

  • Cut the guest count.I’ve experienced night sweats on who to invite to my wedding. I wake up thinking: “They invited me;” “She’s my second cousin twice removed;” or “What about my best friend from kindergarten?” A recent survey by theknot.com shows that it costs over $200 per guest at a wedding. That’s right – over $30,000 for just 150 people! Try to limit your guest to friends, immediate family, grandparents, close aunts and uncles, and close cousins. People will understand you can’t invite everyone.
  • DIY.This isn’t for me, but it is for a lot of people. I’m not overly handy or creative, nor do I have the patience for doing anything myself on my big day. However, if you are that type of person, you should do as much as you can on your own. Try printing your own invites and save-the-dates cards. Research sites like Etsy to get ideas. Pick a creative family member to help decorate for your rehearsal dinner; have a girlfriend do your hair. Every little bit that you can do yourself (or others can do) will save hundreds or even thousands of dollars. Maybe a friend’s participation could be given in lieu of a gift.
  • Don’t be so traditional.More of my friends are not getting married on Saturday. In most cases they are moving to Friday and Sunday where wedding vendors and venues don’t charge the same premium as a Saturday wedding. Also, think lunch reception and maybe not a sit-down, four-course evening meal.  Or, you could just do a champagne toast and appetizers and cut out early for the honeymoon 😉.
  • Pick a season and stick with it.Try to purchase decorations, flowers, and food that are in season. If you are trying to get Birds of Paradise or sunflowers in the dead of winter, you will pay for it. You can save a lot by having a Christmas wedding because most venues are already decorated. Another option is to try for a spring wedding when everything outside is blooming. If you are planning your meal options, do a sautéed veggie option with items that are in season.
  • Bundle. Try bundling items to cut down cost. For example, instead of having a cake and party favors, maybe have a candy station for people to grab something on their way out the door. This way, you still have sweets and favors, but you’re cutting the expense down by really having one.  If you have something around the house that you can use as your guest book, do it! I’ve seen people use globes from a bookshelf to sign, as well as old corn hole boards that were painted with the wedding colors.
  • Keep it casual. Buffets may not give the same vibe as a plated meal, but it’s a lot cheaper. If you really don’t want people to wait in line for food, then try doing family style. This is a bit more expensive but doesn’t come with the extra cost of servers.
  • Hire a coordinator.  This goes against the DIY bullet, but you can save money in the long run. Most wedding planners have discounts and perks arranged with partners and vendors… but be wary and do your research before hiring someone to plan for you.
  • Do everything memorable early. Try to get the bouquet toss and cake cutting out of the way early. If you do everything memorable first thing, you can let your photographer and videographer leave early to cut down on their hourly time. Your guests will continue to snap pictures throughout the night.
  • Buy someone else’s wedding. This may sounds crazy, but sadly, many people cancel their wedding every day. Most deposits are already put down and can’t be returned. Decorations have been bought, and gifts have been purchased.  Check out http://www.bridalbrokerage.com/to purchase someone else’s unfulfilled day.

Finally, the number one way to save money… ELOPE! Have a quick wedding, a potluck in the backyard, good conversation and s’mores by the fire, and call it a good day!

Good luck on planning your special day!

Ashley Woodring, CFP®
Financial Advisor

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THE GREEK MESS WON’T HURT THE US ECONOMY

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has performed a valuable public service by publishing a detailed “Debt Sustainability Analysis” for Greece on July 2. While this document is written in typically dry “bureaucratese,” it lays bare the failure of the strategy of “kicking the can down the road” that the other Euro Zone countries have been using with Greece for the past five years.

Dr. Carl Weinberg is Chief Economist at High Frequency Economics and a veteran of the mostly successful Brady Plan debt restructuring program of 1989-1992. Those negotiations took debt loads that were impossible and restructured them, in a manner similar to the way failing corporations are restructured in the US. Brady Plan deals were worked out for Argentina, Brazil, Bulgaria, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Ivory Coast, Jordan, Mexico (the first one in 1989-1990), Nigeria, Panama, Peru, the Philippines, Poland, Russia, Uruguay, Venezuela and Vietnam.

Dr. Weinberg suggests that the €323 billion ($358.3 billion) Greek debt be restructured into bonds with a maturity of 100 years, a coupon (interest) rate of 5.0 percent and a 25-year grace period before the first payment is due. This would give Greece “breathing room” and would keep all its creditors (primarily the European Central Bank (ECB), the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) and the IMF) from having to take a “haircut” on their holdings of Greek debt.

Not very surprisingly, the IMF analysis does not go this far. However, it rather drily suggests that extending the grace period to 20 years and the amortization period to 40 years (an effective doubling of each) together with new financing, would barely be adequate.

Greek voters went to the polls on July 5 in a hastily arranged referendum to vote “yes” or “no” on accepting terms from the creditors that were withdrawn on June 30. Thus, it’s not really clear what they were voting on. The wording in the ballot was also very confusing. It read: “Should the draft agreement submitted by the EC, ECB, IMF to the eurogroup on June 25, which consists of two parts that make up their full proposals, be accepted? The first document is titled, ‘Reforms for the Completion of the Current Program and Beyond’ and the second ‘Preliminary Debt Sustainability Analysis.’”

Despite that convoluted wording (it can’t possibly be any clearer in Greek), the 62.5 percent of voters who turned out gave a victory by a 61.3-38.7 percent margin to all those wishful thinking people who believe that reality won’t triumph. Greece is being kept afloat by the ECB. If they stop doing that, the banks will all be bankrupt. No one knows where this disaster will go.

Now the creditors need to follow the IMF recommendations, which include another €60 billion ($66.5 billion) of new money through 2018. This is in addition to the restructuring of all the existing debt.

Like so many economic problems in the world, the Greek mess will be finally resolved when there are no other options. If Greece were to leave the Euro Zone (a terribly complicated exercise), it would be hit with horrendous inflation and an even bigger collapse of the economy that the 25.0 percent decline it has already experienced since 2009.

Greece needs debt relief. It also needs to reform its ridiculous pension system to conform to those of the rest of the Euro Zone and figure out ways to collect taxes that are owed.

The Greek economy is about $200 billion a year in real GDP. That’s close to Alabama ($199.4 billion in 2014) or Oregon ($215.7 billion). Both are 1.2 percent of the US total.

A failure to follow something like the prescriptions of the IMF or Dr. Weinberg will condemn the Euro Zone to remain mired in a recession that began in the first quarter of 2008. Some people would argue that a recession lasting that long ought better be called a depression.

Either way, whatever happens to Greece is mainly a problem for the Euro Zone. It is simply too small an economy to have a major impact on the US. Most of whatever impact there might be would come through damage done to overall Euro Zone growth, rather than directly from Greece itself.

Dr.  James F. Smith, Chief Economist.

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Renting vs. Buying

This is the fourth post in a series of six blog entries focused on topics that might be of interest to the Millennial generation.

In my experience, one of the largest financial decisions clients struggle with is the decision to rent or purchase their residence. There is not necessarily a right or wrong answer, and every individual’s situation is different. However, there are some scenarios that may help guide you in making the right choice.

Let’s start with buying. Here are five factors that may make it more beneficial to purchase:

  1. You like the idea of “forced savings” – as you pay your mortgage your balance owed is reduced. Building this equity in your home will create a form of savings for you. Since the value of the home is locked in, you can’t squander it away on dining out or shopping. You realize the savings once you decide to sell it.
  2. You think the tax incentives are attractive – when you file your taxes, you will be able to deduct mortgage interest. Property taxes will also add a nice deduction. If you do any energy-efficient improvements, you could be eligible to deduct those expenses. Another bonus is that depending on your situation, any capital gain from the future sale of your home is free from federal income tax.
  3. You want stable payments– typically your mortgage payment will never change, while rent is more susceptible to rise with inflation. Purchasing may be right for you if you are looking for a stable cost of living.
  4. You dislike the restraints placed by your landlord – often when renting you must get everything approved. If you want to paint, rip up the carpet and put down hardwoods, take out a wall or have a dog, then owning probably makes more sense. Home ownership allows you to customize a space and really have a place that you can call home.
  5. You value a second-income stream – by owning a home, there is potential to create additional income by renting part of it out. If you have an extra bedroom, finished basement, or a garage for storage, it’s possible to rent to friends, family or others to help cover your mortgage payment.
  6. Bonus – quite possibly the biggest bonus of all is you will be debt free in retirement with no mortgage payment. You will always have the expense of a rent payment if you continue renting.

But guess what… buying may not be right for everyone. It’s important to remember that there is more to owning a home than just a mortgage payment. Between maintenance, fees, and taxes, the costs can add up. And other factors may contribute to make it an unwise choice for some people to purchase. Here are five factors that may make it more beneficial to continue renting:

  1. You plan on moving – home ownership is not a short-term investment. If you think that you may be moving for any reason within the next 3-5 years, it’s wise to continue to rent. Once you are settled, revisit the topic!
  2. You don’t have good job stability – of course you can never be 100% certain if your job is stable, but the possibility of your income going down could greatly impact the type of home you can afford. If you expect to quit your job, or anticipate being let go, hold off on a home purchase until there is a bit more certainty about the future.
  3. You just aren’t that handy around the house – as a renter, you don’t have to worry about maintenance issues. If the pipes burst (something that the author can relate to), then the landlord is responsible for repairs. For a homeowner, it’s 100% on you. It’s up to the owner to paint, shovel the drive when it snows, and fix the garbage disposal when it’s broken. If you aren’t ready for the hassle or expense involved with being the fixer-upper, then perhaps home ownership just isn’t for you.
  4. You have a low credit score – having a solid credit score is vital in purchasing a home. While it may not prevent you from getting a mortgage, it could drastically affect the interest rate that you receive. If you have a score below 700 it would probably be best for you to rent while paying off debt and building up your credit.
  5. You don’t have money for a down payment – if you don’t have any cash squirreled away for a down payment, it may not be the time to purchase. If you don’t have a 20% down payment you will have to pay PMI (private mortgage insurance) which will increase cost of monthly payment. Use this time to save and budget before taking the plunge.

These are some of the basic pros and cons of renting vs. buying. Since every situation is different, it’s always best to speak with a financial advisor about the circumstances surrounding your own decision matrix.

With correct planning and consideration, we’re sure that you will come to the best decision for you!

Ashley Woodring, CFP® Financial Advisor

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Student Loans vs. Saving

This is the second post in a series of six blog entries focused on topics that might be of interest to the Millennial generation. If you would like to see our attempt at making these subject matters entertaining, visit our YouTube page to see a video version of this article.

 

You’ve recently graduated from college and you have a load of student debt. It can be overwhelming. You think it will take forever to pay it off. To make matters worse, you know you are supposed to be saving for retirement but you feel like you can’t because you need to pay off your student loans first.

To make the best financial decision it is important to remove the psychological barriers that often accompany the ‘saving versus paying down debt’ trade-off. The millennial generation is particularly opposed to debt – more so than older generations, so they tend to pay their student loans off before they start saving. Unfortunately, this could be the wrong choice.

The long run average of large company stocks is 11.3% (1950-2013). If your student loans are at an 8% interest rate, you would be better off investing money over and above your minimum loan payment if you have the risk tolerance for investing the money in equities.

Maybe an 11.3% return sounds unrealistic. It’s common for this historical return to seem disconnected from the present. A common psychological condition causes us to take recent past experiences and extrapolate them into the future, creating a false sense of predictive ability on what the future holds. If the good times are rolling, they will always roll. If we are in crisis, we will be in crisis for the foreseeable future. But the truth is that things change. Our economy is cyclical in nature and that’s why we use long-term historical observations to make long-term decisions.

Even with the worst recession since the Great Depression the average return of large company stocks in the 10-year period from 2004 -2013 was 7.4%. And while that’s not huge, you may be willing to take the chance that we won’t soon see a repeat of the worst stock market period in history. Those loans will get paid off eventually and you’ll have more money in retirement simply by saving more and saving earlier.

Don’t forget about your employer match on your 401k. If you have a 401k match, by all means take it! Even if your student loan interest rate is 12%, you’d be better off (after paying the minimum) putting enough money into your 401k to get the free money. That’s a 100% return, guaranteed.

Harli Palme, CFA, CFP®
Partner

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The Bucket List

Several years ago, I read a self-help book that promised to help me manage money better.  I do not remember much about the book, not even the title.  I do remember one exercise that was very useful.

I was supposed to create what is now commonly known as a “bucket list.”  I should list all of the things I wanted to do during my lifetime.  It did not matter how long the list was.  When finished with the list, I should then review it and think about how a change in money management practices could help me achieve those goals.  That would help me to set a budget, make more responsible spending decisions, et cetera.  After all, you need money to pay for most of the things you want to do in life.

I found the exercise to be very enlightening.  To my surprise, I saw that most of the items related to travel.  I realized that I needed to do a better job at maintaining an emergency fund and set a formal budget for travel.  I had been tapping the emergency fund whenever I wanted to visit some place new, which is a bad idea.  I setup a direct debit from my checking to my savings account so that savings could be automatic.  This act created a formal budget for both emergency savings and travel.

Today’s list is very different.  My revised list includes completing several projects around the house, paying off my mortgage a few years early, donating more money to my favorite charity, buying a nice road bike, and squirreling away more money for unexpected expenses and retirement.  Sure, there are a few personal goals that are not tied to money; I am not completely shallow.  In balance, the list is much more practical than years ago, when I wanted to see the world.

I still do not want to wake up one day at age 80 and realize all I ever did was work, work, work.  The list can help me stay focused on important things and achieve some of my goals.  Hopefully, I can strike the right balance between the practical (saving for retirement) and the fun (buying that road bike).  I encourage you to take some time to create your own list.

Then, please share your list with your financial advisor.  Goals change over time, so he or she should be aware of what you want from life.  Together, you can develop a financial plan to direct your savings in a manner that will bring you closer to achieving your goals.

Cristy Freeman, AAMS
Senior Operations Associate

 

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I Hate Debt

Don’t we all??  I worry about placing myself in a situation where an unexpected event (car accident, illness, et cetera) could create a financial disaster.  As a result, I carefully monitor the level of both short- and long-term obligations I have. 

With interest rates at historic lows, I decided to take a closer look at refinancing my house.  I have refinanced two times already; should I do it again?  Some of you may be considering the same thing, so I thought I would talk a bit about how I made my decision.

It is important to understand what you are trying to accomplish.  In my regard, I want to pay off my house within 15 years, while keeping the monthly payment at a reasonable level.  Others may want to tap home equity so that they can pay down loans with higher interest rates or do some repairs to the home.  If this is the case with you, calculate in advance how much you need. 

The next step is to take a look at your credit report.  Some people have had some dings from the Great Recession.  Resolve any reporting issues in advance of applying for a loan.  It will save you a lot of aggravation later.

Now, let’s figure out if it is feasible to refinance.  I used the calculators that are available on the bankrate.com website.  Here is a link:  http://www.bankrate.com/calculators.aspx. They have a great mortgage amortization calculator that shows you total interest paid over the life of the loan.  You can also see the impact of extra amounts paid toward principal. 

Using this tool, I entered my current interest rate and loan terms.  I analyzed the impact of the extra payments I have been making toward principal each month.  Then, I entered a 15-year term but with a lower interest rate. 

I compared the total interest expense with my current rate vs. a lower estimated rate.  The difference in total interest paid for my current loan vs. the lower interest rate loan is about $5,000, as long as I continue to make extra payments toward principal.  Closing costs and refinancing fees add up, so I suspect that net difference between the two loans would be much lower. 

As long as I continue making extra payments toward principal, I will accomplish my goal of paying off the loan within 15 years.  The lower interest rate loan would also require a larger monthly payment.  I am not comfortable with that.  With my current loan, I can keep my lower payment amount, giving me some security in the event of a serious financial crunch. 

Lower interest rates can be very enticing.  In the long run, though, you could sacrifice financial peace-of-mind just to save a few dollars.  A careful analysis of your personal situation can help you make the right decision.  If all of this seems overwhelming, we are always here to help.  Your financial advisor is just a phone call away.

Cristy Freeman, AAMS
Senior Operations Associate

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