With the extraordinary amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus pumped into the financial system over the last 12-18 months, many investors are concerned with the prospect of future inflation. The large U.S. budget deficit is another potential inflationary factor if it is financed by the government expanding the money supply.
Despite these factors, inflationary expectations in the bond market are quite low. There is even a small but vocal minority of market participants that believe that deflation remains a significant risk. One way to determine the markets’ expectation for inflation over the next ten years is to compare the yields of U.S. Treasury Notes against those of Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) of similar maturity. The current yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Note is 3.33% as of this writing, while the 10-year TIPS yield is 1.5%. The difference of these two numbers is the implied inflation rate over the next 10 years of 1.83%. If inflation over the next 10 years turns out to be higher than 1.83%, then you would be better off buying the inflation-protected security. Since 1926, inflation has averaged about 3% annually. While we do not believe that there will be a sharp increase in inflation over the next 1-2 years, it certainly is a possibility over the longer term. Therefore, within the fixed income allocations of our client portfolios, we have been avoiding purchases of traditional Treasury securities in favor of TIPS.
What asset classes would perform better in an inflationary environment? Among fixed income investments, we would expect inflation-protected bonds and high-yield bonds to perform better. Although the short-run impact of inflation on stocks has historically been mixed, stocks typically act as a hedge against inflation over longer time periods. This is particularly true of companies and industries that have the ability to pass along price increases to consumers, or those that have comparatively low levels of fixed assets. Our core strategy of broad diversification and no market timing would remain unchanged, whether the environment is inflationary or deflationary. The main determinant of a portfolio’s return is the asset allocation. Having the discipline to stick with your chosen allocation is more important than the specific allocation that you choose.
Within the equity portion of client portfolios, we may overweight certain sectors or industries that we believe would fare better in a particular inflationary environment. However, since the future is uncertain, our main goal remains to create client portfolios that will perform well in a variety of economic scenarios.
Bill Hansen, CFA
October 9, 2009