Top 10 rules to a frugal life:

Those that know me well can vouch for the fact that I am a frugal person.  I feel that there is much that is virtuous about living a frugal life.  Learning about delayed gratification and the important limits to set upon our role in a consumption based economy is a great path to happiness and peace.  The famous economist and philosopher John Stuart Mill once said, “I have learned to seek my happiness by limiting my desires, rather than attempting to satisfy them.”  This simple phrase rings true to me.  This is especially evident as you stand witness to the constant bombardment of consumerism in our media and markets.  Take stock of what you have and the blessings of life and you might not fall prey to the treadmill of consumption that will always be tempting you.

Top 10 rules to a frugal life:

  1. Budget – know where your money goes.
  2. Be guarded against lifestyle inflation; try to keep income growing faster than expense growth.
  3. Don’t be wasteful. Consider gently used items when buying cars, and other depreciating assets.
  4. Find discounts whenever possible.
  5. Trips and vacations are about experiences, not necessarily lavish accommodations.
  6. Frugal people rarely eat out, preferring to prepare their own food.  I find it better and healthier, not to mention less costly.
  7. While there are many worthwhile private schools, there is a great value to be found in many of our public schools as well. Consider whether public schools, for both young children and college, may be right for your family.
  8. Frugal people care less about fads and trends; keeping up does not matter to them.
  9. Know the value of a dollar, if there is a lower interest rate find it.
  10. Don’t be cheap, stay generous.  It is ok to part with money to help others.

Richard Manske, CFP®                                                                                                                                      Managing Partner

facebook rick

Share this:

Required Rate of Return

Whenever I meet someone new and am asked the obligatory “what do you do?” I typically get two reactions. Roughly half of folks respond with an unconscious grimace and politely excuse themselves in search of someone more interesting.  The second reaction is one of delight and surprise.

Once this exchange happens with an interested party, the next question I usually get is – what stocks do you like? Now I’m the one grimacing.  The reason being is that stocks are as varied as the investors who own them.  In addition to first understanding an investor’s risk tolerance, time horizon, and long-term goals, picking stocks requires a lot of analysis.  One of the cornerstones of equity analysis begins with something called the required rate of return. If you’re not already grimacing, read on brave reader!

A required rate of return effectively measures what kind of payback you need to get in order to go forward with a stock (or any investment) purchase. To determine a stock’s required rate of return you need three inputs: (1) the economy’s real risk-free rate of return (2) the expected inflation rate and (3) a risk premium to make-up for the added uncertainty that comes with owning a stock.  The first input, the real risk-free rate of return is a return you can theoretically get today with virtually no risk.  We plan to own our stock for ten years, so we’ll use the 10 Yr Treasury bond as our risk-free rate proxy, currently yielding ~2.5%.  We start with the “risk-free” rate because if nothing else, the stock you’re considering should at least deliver a return on par with a very safe US Treasury bond.  And then some, because you need to be compensated for the additional risk you’re about to take.  More on that in a minute.

Next, rising costs will diminish the purchasing power of your dollar over time, so you’ll want to have an investment that at least offsets the deleterious effects of inflation. Expected inflation is currently running around 2%, so we’ll add that to our risk-free rate of 2.5% for a required stock return (so far) of 4.5%.  Finally, because of the added risk you take on by owning a stock, you should demand some kind of compensation for this uncertainty.  We account for this risk by taking a stock’s beta or its volatility compared to the market, and multiplying it by an equity risk premium.  The equity risk premium is generally estimated by subtracting the expected equity market return (stocks have returned 10% on average over the long-term*) from the risk-free rate.  Thus, our equity risk premium is 7.5% or 10% minus the risk-free 2.5%.  Phew.  Using a pretend stock, Widgets-R-Us (Ticker: WIGGY) as our prospective stock investment, with a 5-year beta of about 0.90 – meaning it has historically been less volatile than the market – we get a total risk component of 6.75% (beta x equity risk premium or 0.90 x 7.5%).  Putting it altogether we should require WIGGY to return at least 9.25% before wading in.

Congrats! You calculated a required rate of return.  Although this is an important starting point, I’m sorry to tell you it’s just the beginning.  It’s a good beginning because we now know what return we require in order to buy Widgets-R-Us, but you may have guessed that without an expected rate of return we don’t have a lot to go on.  The good news is that there are plenty of knowledgeable investment professionals who can do the work for you.  And importantly, are willing to take the time to explain how they come to their investment decisions.

*Ibbotson, large cap stocks 1926-2012

Carrie Tallman, CFA

Director of Research

?????????????????????????????????????????????

Share this:

What is an Index (and why should you care)?

Recently I was on vacation with a friend, and while enjoying the sunshine she received a CNN alert…

Breaking News: Dow Jones Industrial Average soars to an all time high.

She then asked me what the Dow Jones was exactly … “Should I know what this means?” My response was, “it’s a stock market index, of course.” Seeing the perplexed look on her face, I realized that she had no idea what I was talking about. After having this conversation, I wanted to share with you what I shared with my friend.

  1. What is a market index? – A stock market index is simply a measurement of the value of the market or a section of the market. Let’s break it down into a simple example. Assume ABC index is made up of 6 companies. At the end of trading on Monday the index is at 5,000 points. On Tuesday, three of the companies go up in value, two of the companies go down and the sixth company stays the same. The total value of the stocks change by 3% on Tuesday, so now the index is at 5,150 points. This tells you that this section of the market went up in value from Monday to Tuesday.
  2. Why are market indexes important? Choosing appropriate investments is only the beginning. One of the biggest challenges of an investor is to determine how well your portfolio is performing. Are you lagging behind the market or beating it? You can only know the answer to these questions if you have something to compare your investments to. Indexes allow you to measure the performances of your investments against an appropriate benchmark.
  3. How do you choose the right benchmark? In general, when you are tracking the performance of an investment, you look at a benchmark that is most similar to your investment. For example: If your portfolio is all U.S. large cap stocks you would likely use the S&P 500 as your benchmark. If your portfolio is all fixed income then you would most likely benchmark against the Barclays Aggregate Bond index. If your portfolio is a combination of both large-cap stock and fixed income you would want to use a blended benchmark of the two indexes.
  4. All of this is for naught if you don’t know what indexes track which stocks. Here are some of the most common market indexes and the companies they are comprised of.
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) – This is one of the most popular measures of the market. A.K.A. “The Dow” or “Dow 30” is a price-weighted measure of 30 US blue-chip companies. The index covers all industries with the exception of transportation and utilities, which are covered by other Dow Jones indexes.
  • S&P 500 Index – This index is based on 500 U.S. large cap companies that have common stock listed on the NYSE or NASDAQ. These companies are representative of the industries in the U.S. economy.
  • Russell 2000 – This index tracks 2,000 small-company stocks. It serves as benchmark for the small-cap component of the overall market.
  • Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 – This index covers over 5,000 US companies listed on major stock exchanges. This includes US companies of all sizes across all industries.
  • Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index – This is a broad-based benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated fixed-rate taxable bond market.
  • MSCI EAFE Index – This index is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets outside of the U.S. and Canada. EAFE is an acronym that stands for Europe, Australasia and Far East. (Check out Sarah DerGarabedian’s blog post from last week to read why it’s important to have an international allocation – http://wp.me/plOKq-oE)  
  1. It’s important to remember when comparing your investment returns to compare your results to the long-term market, not just the past year. Typically analysts look at 3, 5 and 10 year returns. Short-term results can often be misleading due to short-term volatility. A quick Google search should provide you with the long-term returns of any of the major indexes.

After explaining all of this information to my friend, I think she had a better grasp on market indexes and hopefully this information is helpful to you too. One realization that came from our conversation is that sometimes financial advisors (nerds) forget that things that seem so common to us aren’t as familiar to those not in the industry. We never want a client to leave a meeting or conversation feeling confused or uncertain. If you have questions, please ask! We may just write a blog post about it.

Ashley Woodring, CFP®

Financial Advisor

Ashley_Woodring(b)

 

 

Share this:

Kit Kats, Blow Pops, and the Benefits of Diversification

“But international stocks are underperforming the S&P 500! Why are you buying international mutual funds in my account?”

We hear this question a lot. People often wonder why we include various sectors and asset classes in our portfolios, but the one that tends to get the most scrutiny is international equity. Many investors exhibit what is known as “home bias,” or the tendency to invest primarily in domestic securities, whether it stems from a nationalistic desire to “buy local” or simply the belief that international investing carries additional costs and complexities. Often, investors eschew international diversification to their detriment, as many studies have shown that the inclusion of international equities lowers portfolio volatility while increasing risk-adjusted return. However, these metrics are not what investors see – they see performance. They see that the return on their international fund is lower than the return on the S&P 500 and fear that it will be a drag on their returns forever. So why don’t we sell it?

Quite simply, we keep it for the diversification benefits. With Halloween just around the corner, perhaps an analogy will help. When you’re trick-or-treating, you knock on the door of every lighted house and collect as much candy as you can carry home. Then you dump it out on the floor and sort through it to revel in the spoils. Hopefully you’ll come home with lots of chocolate candy bars, M&Ms, Milk Duds, Junior Mints, and Reese’s cups. Then there might be a smattering of Smarties, Starburst, and Skittles, which are fine. Invariably there will be a few of those orange and black-wrapped peanut butter taffies, some chalky Dubble Bubble and a handful of Dum Dums – but that’s OK. A few crummy candies won’t ruin the night, since you have so much more of the good stuff. And you never know which houses are going to hand out what candy, so you have to hit them all. (And to the person handing out raisins, just stop. Don’t be that guy.)

Now imagine that your portfolio is a bag of Halloween candy. Even if you love Snickers, it would be pretty disappointing if your entire haul was nothing but Snickers – that would defeat the purpose of trick-or-treating, because you could simply go to the store and buy a bag. No, you want a wide variety from which to choose, based on changing moods and cravings! In a similar way, you need to diversify your investments so that the mood of the day doesn’t destroy your savings in one fell swoop. If your entire portfolio consists of the stock of one bank and the bank goes under, you lose all of your money. If you buy the stock of 5 different banks, but the entire banking industry hits a rough patch, your portfolio plummets…so you buy the stock of 40 different companies in different sectors and industries to spread the risk. But what if they’re all domestic companies and the domestic economy tanks? I think you see where this is going. Different investments zig and zag, moving in opposite directions simultaneously, which dampens the overall volatility of the portfolio.

You may not be a huge fan of Blow-Pops, but what happens if you fill your bag with Kit Kats and you’re suddenly in the mood for Sour Apple? What if you leave your bag in the sun and all the Kit Kats melt? It’s true that if particular sector (such as international equity) underperforms and you have it in your portfolio, you might get a lower return on your portfolio for that period. But when that sector rallies, you’ll be happy you had a couple of Blow-Pops in your bag.

Sarah DerGarabedian, CFA

Portfolio Manager

???????????????????

Share this:

Why not Short the Market?

A “short sale” refers to selling stock that you do not own with the hope of repurchasing it at a lower price later. It is a way for an investor to try and profit from their view that a particular investment is overvalued and likely to fall in price. This technique can be used on individual stocks, or on Exchange Traded Funds (“ETFs”) that represent anything from individual sectors to the overall market. While there are many successful investors who have done well on the short side, for most people this strategy doesn’t make a lot of sense due to the risks involved.

The mechanics of a short sale are as follows: An investor goes to their broker, borrows shares of a stock and sells them. The short sale proceeds are credited to the short seller’s account, less a fee for borrowing the stock. You must have a margin account in order to short stock. If the price of the shorted stock rises, the short seller will need eventually to borrow on margin to keep the position open.

The short seller receives interest on the short sale proceeds, although this is minimal currently since interest rates are low. In practice, this interest is often split with the buyer of the shares or the brokerage firm that is facilitating the short sale. The short seller must pay any dividends on the borrowed stock to the purchaser of the shares.

Risks of Short Selling:

Swimming Against the Tide –Since 1926, about 7 out of 10 years have been positive for the overall market. If you are short the overall market, chances are you will be in a losing position after a year.

Timing is Critical—Stocks can move quickly in either direction, and it is difficult to predict the future. If the event that you are betting on fails to materialize, or if the opposite happens, your losses can mount quickly. For this reason, short selling is more common among professional and institutional investors.

It can be Expensive to Maintain a Short Position— With today’s low interest rates, the combination of the borrowing cost and the dividends the short must pay to the long far outweighs the interest on the short sale proceeds that the seller is earning. For example, say you short 100 shares on Johnson and Johnson at $108 because you think Band-Aid sales are going to decline sharply. You receive proceeds of $10,800 and earn money market interest at 0.01%, or $10.80 per year. Your annual cost to carry the position is the 2.8% dividend, or $302.40 plus any borrowing costs charged by your broker. These additional costs can be quite high for stocks that are hard to borrow.

Limited Profits but Potentially Unlimited Losses–At most, any stock can go down 100% in value. However, there is no limit to how far a stock or the overall market can go up. If it goes up by enough to wipe out the equity in your margin account, the brokerage firm will buy-in the security at a loss and close the trade. Say you short a stock at $8/share. The most you can make is $8 if the company goes out of business and you are able to buy back the borrowed shares at $0. But what if good news comes out and the stock goes from $8 to $18? You just lost $10/share when your maximum theoretical profit was $8. In reality, few companies go out of business so your maximum profit is even more limited.

We believe that, rather than trying to profit on short-term price movements, our clients should place the equity portion of their investments in a diversified portfolio of quality companies with the potential for rising earnings and rising dividend income.

Bill Hansen, CFA

Managing Partner

Bill

 

Share this:

The Rational Investor… or Not?

This is the last post in a series of six blog entries focused on topics that might be of interest to the Millennial generation. If you would like to see our attempt at making these subject matters entertaining, visit our YouTube page to see a video version of this article.

 

So here’s the setup: you have two large pizzas. One is cut into four pieces, the other is cut into eight pieces. Would you rather have one piece from the former, or two pieces from the latter? If you asked a hungry four-year-old that question, he’d probably be totally confused because you used the words “former” and “latter.” But then he’d go for the 2 pieces because in his mind, two pieces are more than one. Of course, anyone with a basic knowledge of fractions knows this is a trick question, because it’s the same amount.

Let’s imagine now that the pizzas are companies, and the pieces are shares of stock in those companies. You have $1000 to invest. Company A’s stock price is $50, and company B’s stock price is $100. Assuming that there are no trading costs, you can purchase 20 shares of company A and 10 shares of company B. All else equal, which would you buy? Answer: it doesn’t matter – your investment in either company is the same. You’d be surprised at how many people would choose company A because you get “more” shares of stock or because they think the shares are a better “value” by virtue of having a lower price per share. The thing you have to realize is this – a company can issue any number of shares it wants to. If the price per share is $100 they can issue a 2-for-1 split, and now you’ll have 2 shares worth $50 each for every one you had before. Your total dollar investment in the company doesn’t change, though.

We all want to believe we are rational and that emotions are only something that affect other people, but it just isn’t true. We all have made mistakes like the investor in the example above and that’s why behavioral finance is one of the fastest-growing branches of psychology. This is just one example of common investor misconceptions but there are many more – click on the link above for a lighthearted look at a few that we see from time to time. Remember to always discuss your investment decisions with your advisor, so that he or she can lead you in the direction of the logical and unbiased choice.

Sarah DerGarabedian, CFA
Portfolio Manager

???????????????????

 

Share this:

Interest Rates and How They Impact You

This is the fifth post in a series of six blog entries focused on topics that might be of interest to the Millennial generation.

Today I’m going to touch on the exciting topic of interest rates. Okay, let’s be honest, most of us consider the subject boring and highly technical at best, and pure financial torture at worst. But hear me out. I’d like to explain why interest rates are in fact pretty fascinating, surprisingly straightforward, and worth learning about. The truth is that interest rates can have a massive impact on your current and future financial situation.

So what are interest rates? And how do they affect your financial well-being? If you think about it, everything in our modern society has a cost. You pay for a good meal at a nice restaurant, there’s a charge for staying at a hotel, and an education certainly isn’t free. The same holds true for money. It has a cost and that cost is interest rates. In order to get your hands on some money, say for a car loan, a mortgage, even groceries, you pay for that money in the form of an interest rate. When you have a good credit history, i.e. you consistently pay back other people’s money in a timely manner, you’re considered a good credit risk and it becomes cheaper for you to borrow money in the future. In other words, the interest rate you’ll get charged on loans will be lower than the average person. This is a good thing for your financial well-being. On the flip side, if you are even occasionally late on a credit card, car loan, or any other debt payment, you become a less desirable credit risk and the rate at which you’re charged to borrow money in the future goes up. In other words, the interest rate on the next loan you take out will be higher and you’ll pay out more money over the course of the loan, all else being equal.

You may have heard about the compounding power of interest and how it can help you significantly grow your wealth. This is a very true financial tenant when it comes to investing your money. However, this same principle also works against you when you step into the role of a borrower. As an example, consider that the median price of a home in 2013 was about $200,000. Now assume you take out a 30-year fixed mortgage to purchase a home. You’ve worked hard and have 10% in cash to put down. This leaves you with a $180,000 mortgage. Going interest rates for borrowers with good credit are around 4.25%. Even though these are still historically low rates, at 4.25% you can expect to pay approximately $138,960 in interest alone over the life of the loan! That’s in addition to the $200,000 cost of the house. Now let’s pretend that your credit is a little below average, making you a slightly higher-risk in the eyes of a bank. You’re still able to secure a loan, but the bank wants to charge you a 5.00% interest rate in order to compensate for the risk they take on by lending to you. At a 5.00% rate, you can expect to pay $167,760 in interest over the course of the loan, or almost $30,000 more than you would pay with a better credit score. That is some serious money.

On top of the impact interest rates have on our personal investments and debt payments they also affect our spending and saving behavior. Imagine that your bank was offering a savings account with a 10% interest rate. All else being equal, would you be more or less inclined to save? That’s right. Most people would choose to direct more of their personal income towards savings when interest rates are higher. If millions of people were forgoing spending in favor of savings, this would have a significant effect on the overall economy. Interest rates matter. What about high interest rates when you’re the borrower? As we saw above, even a small increase in an interest rate can lead to much larger debt payments. Generally speaking then, higher interest rates tend to depress credit growth and in the end can muddle economic activity as consumers take out fewer loans.

As you can see, interest rates can have a very direct and often significant effect on our personal financial situation, not to mention our saving and spending patterns, and the broader economy. Although we’ve only skimmed the surface, suffice it to say that interest rates are worth understanding, if for no other reason than to help you make smarter decisions with your money.

Carrie Tallman, CFA
Director of Research

?????????????????????????????????????????????

Share this:

Renting vs. Buying

This is the fourth post in a series of six blog entries focused on topics that might be of interest to the Millennial generation.

In my experience, one of the largest financial decisions clients struggle with is the decision to rent or purchase their residence. There is not necessarily a right or wrong answer, and every individual’s situation is different. However, there are some scenarios that may help guide you in making the right choice.

Let’s start with buying. Here are five factors that may make it more beneficial to purchase:

  1. You like the idea of “forced savings” – as you pay your mortgage your balance owed is reduced. Building this equity in your home will create a form of savings for you. Since the value of the home is locked in, you can’t squander it away on dining out or shopping. You realize the savings once you decide to sell it.
  2. You think the tax incentives are attractive – when you file your taxes, you will be able to deduct mortgage interest. Property taxes will also add a nice deduction. If you do any energy-efficient improvements, you could be eligible to deduct those expenses. Another bonus is that depending on your situation, any capital gain from the future sale of your home is free from federal income tax.
  3. You want stable payments– typically your mortgage payment will never change, while rent is more susceptible to rise with inflation. Purchasing may be right for you if you are looking for a stable cost of living.
  4. You dislike the restraints placed by your landlord – often when renting you must get everything approved. If you want to paint, rip up the carpet and put down hardwoods, take out a wall or have a dog, then owning probably makes more sense. Home ownership allows you to customize a space and really have a place that you can call home.
  5. You value a second-income stream – by owning a home, there is potential to create additional income by renting part of it out. If you have an extra bedroom, finished basement, or a garage for storage, it’s possible to rent to friends, family or others to help cover your mortgage payment.
  6. Bonus – quite possibly the biggest bonus of all is you will be debt free in retirement with no mortgage payment. You will always have the expense of a rent payment if you continue renting.

But guess what… buying may not be right for everyone. It’s important to remember that there is more to owning a home than just a mortgage payment. Between maintenance, fees, and taxes, the costs can add up. And other factors may contribute to make it an unwise choice for some people to purchase. Here are five factors that may make it more beneficial to continue renting:

  1. You plan on moving – home ownership is not a short-term investment. If you think that you may be moving for any reason within the next 3-5 years, it’s wise to continue to rent. Once you are settled, revisit the topic!
  2. You don’t have good job stability – of course you can never be 100% certain if your job is stable, but the possibility of your income going down could greatly impact the type of home you can afford. If you expect to quit your job, or anticipate being let go, hold off on a home purchase until there is a bit more certainty about the future.
  3. You just aren’t that handy around the house – as a renter, you don’t have to worry about maintenance issues. If the pipes burst (something that the author can relate to), then the landlord is responsible for repairs. For a homeowner, it’s 100% on you. It’s up to the owner to paint, shovel the drive when it snows, and fix the garbage disposal when it’s broken. If you aren’t ready for the hassle or expense involved with being the fixer-upper, then perhaps home ownership just isn’t for you.
  4. You have a low credit score – having a solid credit score is vital in purchasing a home. While it may not prevent you from getting a mortgage, it could drastically affect the interest rate that you receive. If you have a score below 700 it would probably be best for you to rent while paying off debt and building up your credit.
  5. You don’t have money for a down payment – if you don’t have any cash squirreled away for a down payment, it may not be the time to purchase. If you don’t have a 20% down payment you will have to pay PMI (private mortgage insurance) which will increase cost of monthly payment. Use this time to save and budget before taking the plunge.

These are some of the basic pros and cons of renting vs. buying. Since every situation is different, it’s always best to speak with a financial advisor about the circumstances surrounding your own decision matrix.

With correct planning and consideration, we’re sure that you will come to the best decision for you!

Ashley Woodring, CFP® Financial Advisor

Ashley_Woodring(b)

Share this:

Student Loans vs. Saving

This is the second post in a series of six blog entries focused on topics that might be of interest to the Millennial generation. If you would like to see our attempt at making these subject matters entertaining, visit our YouTube page to see a video version of this article.

 

You’ve recently graduated from college and you have a load of student debt. It can be overwhelming. You think it will take forever to pay it off. To make matters worse, you know you are supposed to be saving for retirement but you feel like you can’t because you need to pay off your student loans first.

To make the best financial decision it is important to remove the psychological barriers that often accompany the ‘saving versus paying down debt’ trade-off. The millennial generation is particularly opposed to debt – more so than older generations, so they tend to pay their student loans off before they start saving. Unfortunately, this could be the wrong choice.

The long run average of large company stocks is 11.3% (1950-2013). If your student loans are at an 8% interest rate, you would be better off investing money over and above your minimum loan payment if you have the risk tolerance for investing the money in equities.

Maybe an 11.3% return sounds unrealistic. It’s common for this historical return to seem disconnected from the present. A common psychological condition causes us to take recent past experiences and extrapolate them into the future, creating a false sense of predictive ability on what the future holds. If the good times are rolling, they will always roll. If we are in crisis, we will be in crisis for the foreseeable future. But the truth is that things change. Our economy is cyclical in nature and that’s why we use long-term historical observations to make long-term decisions.

Even with the worst recession since the Great Depression the average return of large company stocks in the 10-year period from 2004 -2013 was 7.4%. And while that’s not huge, you may be willing to take the chance that we won’t soon see a repeat of the worst stock market period in history. Those loans will get paid off eventually and you’ll have more money in retirement simply by saving more and saving earlier.

Don’t forget about your employer match on your 401k. If you have a 401k match, by all means take it! Even if your student loan interest rate is 12%, you’d be better off (after paying the minimum) putting enough money into your 401k to get the free money. That’s a 100% return, guaranteed.

Harli Palme, CFA, CFP®
Partner

???????????

Share this:

Gen Y, Say Yes to Stocks!

It started with anecdotal evidence: a conversation with a co-worker about a group of professionals he spoke to about their 401k. The wiser (by which I mean older) folks were asking about the outlook for the economy and how they could maximize their 401k contributions. But the young man in the group, who was in his early 30s, expressed complete contempt for the stock market.  All of his money, he said, was in cash. Then a client of mine who is nearing retirement called me just to tell me about a dinner he went to where the topic of investing came up.  He was shocked at how vehement the young people at the table were about not investing in stocks due to their risk.

Since then I’ve read about a growing body of evidence coming from surveys and other research that suggests that the younger generations are too conservative in their investments. Gen Y is saving but not investing aggressively enough. The problem is that they distrust financial institutions (we don’t count) and believe another financial meltdown is all but imminent.

Gen Y, we don’t blame you. You were in your teens on Sept. 11, 2001, which had to have rocked whatever concept of stability you had. By the time you were old enough to know what the stock market was, the technology-driven crash of 2001-2002 was causing strife in budding 401k plans. And just when you were starting to dream about home ownership the housing market was spiraling out of control in 2008-2010. Many of you watched your parents go through extreme financial duress during this time period, something you were well old enough to understand.

It’s no wonder that Generation Y is too conservative. Your generation doesn’t have the benefit of personally experiencing the roaring 80s and 90s to boost your confidence about the markets. You don’t know who Crockett and Tubbs are. Looking at historical stock returns on paper just isn’t the same as living through it. And it’s hard to understand why men ever wore over-sized shoulder pads, but they did. Even the last five (amazing) years of positive stock markets seems like mere payback for the horror of 2008-2009. Despite this, we have to remember that stocks have historically provided the highest long-term return. No matter what your steadfast beliefs are about the future of the economy, it probably carries no more predictive capacity than the next differing opinion. That’s why we look to history as a guide, rather than trying to guess the future.

When you look at stock volatility over long time frames, it isn’t nearly as risky as the day-to-day movement would have you believe. In the last 87 years large company stocks’ annual returns ranged from -43% in the worst year to +54% in the best. That’s quite a spread! But those same stocks in any given 20 year period (starting on any given day in any year) averaged returns in a range of +3% in the worst 20-year period to nearly +18% in the best 20-year period. That includes the Great Depression and the market crashes of this century. That’s a lot easier to swallow. You have a long time before liquidating your accounts for retirement – probably more than 30 years, so you should be taking a longer term view.

And let’s not forget about inflation. That cash that’s in your 401k is doing less than nothing for you. Long run inflation is around 3%. If you are getting a 0% return on your cash, that is actually -3% in real dollars, guaranteed.

Saving money isn’t good enough. Millennials need to invest with a little more oomph. Yes, diligently putting away $500 a month for 30 years is hard work and no one wants to see their money shrink. But consider this: if you get a modest 4% average return on those savings, you will have $347,000 in retirement; if you double that return to 8% an amazing thing happens: $745,000. Taking risk means a lot of ups and downs along the way, but potentially twice the money in the end. If you can go cliff-jumping with your friends, you can buy stocks, right? (No? Was that just my friends?)

There is no reward without risk, to be sure. Any investment plan should be done with the full comprehension of the volatility, range of outcomes and potential for return. There certainly is risk in losing money in the stock market over short and intermediate time periods. However, those losses only become permanent if you sell out during periods of decline. It seems all but certain that an all-cash/fixed income portfolio is doomed to growth too slow to possibly reach any long-term financial goals.

 

Harli L. Palme, CFA, CFP®

A Gen-exer who believes all of the above applies to her generation too, except the part about over-sized shoulder pads.

Share this: