This morning we received a disappointing jobs report from the Department of Labor indicating that U.S. employers cut 85,000 jobs during the month of December. Since the consensus of analysts was expecting a loss of only 10,000 jobs, one can only wonder if this disappointing news means the end of positive jobs data.
As we move into this economic recovery we must remember that one piece of data does not a trend make. In fact, we have seen most indicators (leading, coincidental and lagging) improve over the last 6-9 months. When reviewing economic data, it is very difficult to make any conclusion from a single piece of data. Instead, it can be more important to follow the trend of data to get a sense of whether the economy is improving or weakening. During 2009, monthly job losses moderated substantially. Employment losses in the first quarter of 2009 averaged 691,000 per month, compared with an average loss of 69,000 per month in the fourth quarter. In following the recent trend, it is clear that the economy is strengthening.
We must remember that it is the job of the news people to shock us in order to ensure that we “tune in” tomorrow. Buried in today’s headlines, we learned that the US Labor market actually added 4,000 jobs in November rather than losing 11,000 as initially reported. This marked the first job growth in two years. This is excellent news that, along with the current trend, should indicate job growth for quarters to come.
In the early 1980’s we experienced what some call a “double dip” recession. This double dip recession was actually two recessions (Jan. 1980-July 1980 & July 1981-November 1982) separated by a period of rapid economic growth. In fact, the economy recovered so strongly from the 1980 recession that inflation forced the Fed Reserve to increase interest rates to a point that forced the economy into the second recession of 1981-1982. Let’s not forget that the economic period after the recession of 1981-1982 was arguably the strongest period of sustained economic growth in history.
This lesson in history teaches us that a slow and steady recovery may be more sustainable than a quick, inflation driven recovery. Although the trend to economic growth remains intact, the reasonable rate of change may allow the Fed to remain accommodative. This freedom could allow the Fed to raise rates when it feels the economy is stable enough to handle a tighter money supply.
Each and every one of us has either been directly affected or had a friend or family member who has been affected by the worst recession since the 1930’s. Their pain and suffering make us wish for a sharp economic recovery and strong job growth. However, we must not forget that before you can run you must first learn to walk. As long as the trends remain positive we will be running in no time.
Michael J. Ziemer