This morning CNBC had a headline “Fending off the Fiscal Cliff”. I turned off the TV. You have to beware of headlines that create a sense of urgency to do something in your portfolio.
This sort of reporting promotes what I call the “I’ve got a feeling” trade. This is when you take some action in your portfolio based on the mood of the day. Currently, there is a lot of focus on the Presidential election. If you are concerned about the other candidate winning, keep in mind that someone is equally concerned about your candidate winning. Don’t make investment decisions based on emotion.
Taxes can be a factor, but should not be the sole driver of an investment decision. Tax planning for this year is particularly difficult due to the uncertainty of future tax rates. The Bush tax cuts are set to expire on 12/31, which would cause the tax rate on qualified dividends to increase from a current maximum of 15% to as high as 39.6%, depending on your tax bracket. We likely will not know anything on income tax, estate tax, alternative minimum tax, the possible return of the IRA charitable deduction for those over 70.5, etc. until after the election or even later in December. It’s also possible that these tax rates could be finalized in the first quarter of 2013 and made retroactive to 12/31.
This year is unusual in that some of the usual rules of thumb about capital gains may not apply. Typically, people want to delay paying taxes whenever possible. However, you way want to realize some long-term capital gains in 2012 in order to lock in the 15% tax rate which will likely be higher next year. In addition, capital gains rates are currently 0% for taxpayers who are in the 10% or 15% tax brackets based on their taxable income. The 0% tax rate for these people also expires on 12/31/2012.
You may not want to realize capital gains early under certain circumstances. For example, if you have investments that are highly appreciated and you are advanced in age or in poor health. Depending on the size of your estate and what happens with estate tax law, the beneficiaries of these assets may receive a step-up in basis for all or a portion of the assets upon the taxpayer’s death. Therefore, it wouldn’t make sense to sell assets and pay taxes on the gain when a step-up might be available in the near future.
We recommend that you avoid making major decisions or changes to your portfolio based on fears or possibilities that may or may not materialize. While some limited amount of portfolio rebalancing may make sense, you should discuss your particular situation with your Parsec advisor if you have questions.
Disclaimer: we are not licensed CPAs and do not give tax advice. We offer some general guidance with respect to the mechanics of tax issues, but we encourage you to consult with your CPA or a qualified tax professional before making any decisions or taking action.
Bill Hansen, CFA
October 12, 2012