What a Rising Rate Environment Could Mean for Bond Funds

After the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond – a widely used economic bell weather – bottomed in July 2016, interest rates have risen substantially through March of this year.  The recent upward pressure on yields has pushed bond prices lower.  Strong economic growth, ongoing interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve, and recent political developments could mean higher yields ahead.  Given the current environment, we’d like to take a closer look at bonds and bond funds.  We’ll examine how they work, a key risk metric to consider, and how these investments might perform if interest rates continue to rise.

Bonds are a type of fixed income investment given the regular cash flows a bondholder receives.  Similar to your home mortgage but with the roles reversed, investors who own bonds are loaning money to an entity (usually a corporation or a government) in exchange for a variable or fixed interest rate over a specified period of time.  This interest rate is known as the bond coupon and it varies based on the credit worthiness of the entity and the length of the payback period, among other factors.

While a bond’s coupon rate, or its stated yield at issuance, remains fixed for the life of the bond its price or value on the open market will vary based on prevailing interest rates.  When interest rates rise, bond prices fall, and when interest rates fall, bond prices rise.

How sensitive a bond’s price is to a change in interest rates is measured by a term called duration.  Specifically, duration is a measure of interest rate risk.  It indicates how much a bond’s principal value will rise or fall due to a change in interest rates.  Measured in years, a bond or bond fund with a higher duration will be more sensitive to changes in interest rates than a lower duration bond or bond fund.  As a result, a portfolio of bonds with a higher duration will fall more in price as interest rates rise than a portfolio with a lower duration, all else being equal.  Fortunately, bond mutual funds or ETFs report their portfolio duration and investors can use this metric to gauge short-term risk.

I say short-term risk because while a jump in interest rates – as we’ve seen recently – will weigh on a bond fund’s near-term performance, the higher current income that comes as a result of an increase in interest rates will often offset much of the decline in a bond fund’s value over the long-term.  This is one benefit of owning multiple bonds or a fixed income fund versus an individual bond.  Because a portfolio of bonds or a bond fund doesn’t have a single maturity date (instead it contains many bonds with different maturity dates), it can provide more income flexibility.  For example, in a rising rate environment, as some bonds in the portfolio mature, the manager can reinvest proceeds from those securities into new bonds that now have higher yields.  In turn, this pushes the portfolio’s yield up and helps to offset price declines.  In particular, bond funds can offer significant diversification benefits given their exposure to many individual bonds with different durations and credit profiles often for a low fee.

While a bond fund’s duration will indicate how much it declines (or rises) in price when interest rates rise (or fall) over a given period, it also indicates how much of a boost it will get from new, higher yields.  Bond funds with higher durations – which are more sensitive to interest rates – typically offer higher current yields to compensate for their higher risk profiles.  So while bond portfolios with higher durations will experience sharper price declines when interest rates rise, they’re also more likely to benefit from higher current income over the long-term.  At the same time, bond funds with shorter duration – which are less sensitive to interest rate changes – won’t benefit as much from higher current income associated with rising interest rates, but they won’t fall in price as much either.

The point is that bond duration is a useful risk metric.  When a fund has a higher duration it tells us that its price will fall more dramatically when interest rates rise as compared to a lower duration fund, but it should benefit more from higher current income tied to higher yields.  The key, however, is your investment time-horizon.  As an investor, you’ll be able to benefit from the higher current income of a longer duration bond fund only if your time-horizon exceeds the fund’s duration.  When it does, higher income over the long-term should offset near-term price declines.

This dynamic – of higher income offsetting falling bond prices – is related to the nature of bonds and is nicely illustrated by the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index.  According to Charles Schwab, since 1976 over 90% of this index’s total return has come from income payments rather than price changes.

While most investors should fair well with a bond fund that is aligned with their investment horizon, diversification is another important consideration.  As stocks have historically delivered the strongest long-term returns and have outpaced inflation since the early 1900’s, bond investments are best used when there is a specific income need.  When this is the case, having a mix of shorter and longer-duration bond funds can help an investor take advantage of a changing interest rate environment and mitigate sharp price swings.  In today’s environment, owning bond funds with varying durations – in proportion to one’s income needs, investment time horizons, and risk tolerance – an investor should be better able to take advantage of rising interest rates.  For example, let’s take a client with 20% of his bond holdings in a short duration fund, 20% in an intermediate duration bond fund, and 60% in a long duration bond fund.  If interest rates were to rise sharply, the lower duration fund would see a small if negligible decline in value. In some cases, it may make sense for the investor to sell some of those shorter duration securities and use the proceeds to add to their long duration bond fund, which would now have a higher current yield.

In addition to duration and price sensitivity, Parsec’s Research Committee considers many other factors when constructing a client’s fixed income portfolio.  We also look at where we are in the credit cycle, the underlying quality of each bond asset category, valuation levels, and inflation sensitivity, among others.  Although thorough and well thought out research is critical to meeting your financial goals, staying invested for the long-term is even more important.  When appropriate, doing so with a fixed income portfolio can help you better weather significant price swings and ultimately benefit from current income.

Thank you,

The Parsec Team

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I Hate Debt

Don’t we all??  I worry about placing myself in a situation where an unexpected event (car accident, illness, et cetera) could create a financial disaster.  As a result, I carefully monitor the level of both short- and long-term obligations I have. 

With interest rates at historic lows, I decided to take a closer look at refinancing my house.  I have refinanced two times already; should I do it again?  Some of you may be considering the same thing, so I thought I would talk a bit about how I made my decision.

It is important to understand what you are trying to accomplish.  In my regard, I want to pay off my house within 15 years, while keeping the monthly payment at a reasonable level.  Others may want to tap home equity so that they can pay down loans with higher interest rates or do some repairs to the home.  If this is the case with you, calculate in advance how much you need. 

The next step is to take a look at your credit report.  Some people have had some dings from the Great Recession.  Resolve any reporting issues in advance of applying for a loan.  It will save you a lot of aggravation later.

Now, let’s figure out if it is feasible to refinance.  I used the calculators that are available on the bankrate.com website.  Here is a link:  http://www.bankrate.com/calculators.aspx. They have a great mortgage amortization calculator that shows you total interest paid over the life of the loan.  You can also see the impact of extra amounts paid toward principal. 

Using this tool, I entered my current interest rate and loan terms.  I analyzed the impact of the extra payments I have been making toward principal each month.  Then, I entered a 15-year term but with a lower interest rate. 

I compared the total interest expense with my current rate vs. a lower estimated rate.  The difference in total interest paid for my current loan vs. the lower interest rate loan is about $5,000, as long as I continue to make extra payments toward principal.  Closing costs and refinancing fees add up, so I suspect that net difference between the two loans would be much lower. 

As long as I continue making extra payments toward principal, I will accomplish my goal of paying off the loan within 15 years.  The lower interest rate loan would also require a larger monthly payment.  I am not comfortable with that.  With my current loan, I can keep my lower payment amount, giving me some security in the event of a serious financial crunch. 

Lower interest rates can be very enticing.  In the long run, though, you could sacrifice financial peace-of-mind just to save a few dollars.  A careful analysis of your personal situation can help you make the right decision.  If all of this seems overwhelming, we are always here to help.  Your financial advisor is just a phone call away.

Cristy Freeman, AAMS
Senior Operations Associate

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